Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:12:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1E 0x1e6f…528c crypto 336 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$243 (+3%) realized +$237 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate80%269W / 66L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$64
14 days+$167
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$190
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -6.0% -15.0% 82% 29% -12.3%
≤30d 335 -1.3% -10.7% 80% 45% -7.8%
≤90d 335 -1.3% -10.7% 80% 45% -7.8%
all 335 -1.3% -10.7% 80% 45% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 45% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 22% -16.6%
15% -27.1% 10% -24.7%
20% -34.2% 6% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$237
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses269 / 66
Open positions1
Markets (closed)335 / 336
History coverage21d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $91 −$76 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 21 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $70 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $70 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $70 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $55 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $45 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$23 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $22 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $33 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 19 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $12 +$9 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $30 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $60 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $45 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $40 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $35 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.01 · official $6.01 (match) · 764 history records