Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:04:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1E 0x1e74…c425 other 91 markets active 4d ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%9W / 81L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$19
politics 14% −$3
sports 7% −$62
economics 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -7.2% -16.1% 14% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 90 -8.9% -17.6% 10% 6% -9.9%
all 90 -8.9% -17.6% 10% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 6% -9.9%
10% -25.4% 6% -18.5%
15% -32.7% 4% -26.4%
20% -39.3% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses9 / 81
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage85d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $126 $126 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $242 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $34 $0 -0%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 05 $64 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $38 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $45 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $33 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 21 $242 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $196 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $223 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $441 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $220 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $220 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $223 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $222 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $218 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $216 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $16 $0 +1%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $641 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $214 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $419 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $398 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $648 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $229 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $682 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $487 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $455 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 13 $228 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $214 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $411 $0 -0%
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Apr 11 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 10 $432 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $920 −$1 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Apr 10 $225 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $228 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $229 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $12 +$9 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $126 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 5d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 11d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 11d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 12d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $30 12d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 12d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 21d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 21d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 21d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $64 22d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $29 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 23d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $78 25d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 26d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 27d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 100¢ $34 28d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 100¢ $34 28d
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $5 28d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 29d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $45 29d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 29d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 29d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $205 33d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $205 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.66 · official $125.66 (match) · 260 history records