Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:47:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e79…97f5 other 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%17W / 235L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$28
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$38
sports 23% −$23
politics 8% −$8
culture 8% −$8
economics 6% −$11
crypto 6% −$5
world 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)252 / 252
History coverage135d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 252 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $115 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $278 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $227 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $524 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $447 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $245 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $442 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $778 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $500 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $578 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $125 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $212 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $338 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $129 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $246 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $481 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $311 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $135 $0 +0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $310 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $281 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $254 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $192 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $199 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $392 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $862 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $147 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $297 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $368 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $358 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 12m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 7h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 9h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $9 9h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $9 10h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 12h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 13h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 15h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 17h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 24h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 25h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $55 28h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $55 29h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 31h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 32h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 37h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 39h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 43h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 47h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1415 history records