Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:24:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1e7b…21c4 other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$939 (+11%) realized +$939 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate62%29W / 18L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$493
7 days+$1,474
14 days+$888
30 days+$944
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$1,333
sports 23% −$724
crypto 5% +$335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +17.7% +6.5% 70% 61% +14.2%
≤30d 47 +4.5% -5.5% 62% 53% +0.3%
≤90d 47 +4.5% -5.5% 62% 53% +0.3%
all 47 +4.5% -5.5% 62% 53% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 53% +0.3%
10% -14.5% 49% -9.3%
15% -22.8% 38% -18.0%
20% -30.3% 26% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$62 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$939
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses29 / 18
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 53
History coverage150d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,703 −$25 -1%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$20 +97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 $0 +6%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $41 −$3 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,396 +$430 +31%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $25 +$19 +76%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $144 +$52 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Jun 20 $41 +$53 +129%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $182 +$72 +40%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $405 +$282 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $20 +$6 +30%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $203 +$87 +43%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$20 +98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $10 +$3 +33%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $252 +$173 +68%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $540 +$281 +52%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$1 +3%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 −$2 -22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $455 +$102 +22%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 +$56 +188%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $41 +$15 +36%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $430 +$13 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $87 −$46 -53%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $447 +$39 +9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$44 +88%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$7 +17%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 +$9 +58%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $333 +$54 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $123 +$42 +34%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$12 +80%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 11 $51 −$8 -16%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Shnaider (+1.5) Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 11 $101 −$101 -100%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jun 11 $696 −$696 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $148 +$65 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $100 +$57 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $101 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $1,678 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,703 2h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 9¢ $5 2h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 34¢ $38 2h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $41 8h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Scor BUY 32¢ $10 8h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 8h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 8¢ $5 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $959 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $867 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,396 22h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $25 38h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21 BUY 41¢ $20 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $196 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $144 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND SELL 58¢ $94 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $254 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $182 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $687 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $405 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 25¢ $41 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 3d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 42¢ $27 3d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $290 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $41 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both BUY 27¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $10.00 · 122 history records