Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:55:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e7d…27a9 other 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate24%13W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$10
other 16% +$4
crypto 3% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% +$2
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +17.5% +6.3% 33% 17% -5.1%
≤30d 19 +5.4% -4.6% 21% 5% -7.5%
≤90d 43 +0.1% -9.5% 23% 9% -8.9%
all 55 -0.1% -9.6% 24% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 7% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 7% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 7% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses13 / 42
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage610d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$6 +105%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $21 $0 +1%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $8 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 12 $44 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $8 +$3 +44%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $43 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $42 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $7 +$4 +48%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $10 +$10 +104%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 06 $8 $0 +4%
Will Solana reach $100 in March? Apr 06 $25 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 27 $16 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $185 by end of February? Mar 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 20 $27 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $32 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $5 24h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 25h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 25h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 47h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $21 6d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 6d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 7d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $8 7d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $8 7d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 8d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 9d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.77 · official $32.77 (match) · 274 history records