Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e80…484a crypto 236 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$180 (-5%) realized −$178 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%111W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day66.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$534
7 days−$634
14 days−$684
30 days−$684
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$601
other 3% −$29
sports 2% −$6
world 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 228 +0.1% -9.5% 49% 48% -27.3%
≤30d 229 -0.4% -9.9% 48% 48% -28.4%
≤90d 229 -0.4% -9.9% 48% 48% -28.4%
all 229 -0.4% -9.9% 48% 48% -28.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 48% -28.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 45% -35.2%
15% -26.4% 35% -41.5%
20% -33.6% 30% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$178
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses111 / 118
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)229 / 236
History coverage7d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day66.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $219 +$19 +9%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 23 $51 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $368 −$355 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Jordan to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 23 $5 +$13 +249%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 −$1 -20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$7 +87%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$4 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +46%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$5 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$11 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 $0 -5%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International Jun 23 $3 −$1 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 23 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $74 −$11 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $36 +$27 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $40 +$8 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $72 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$36 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $46 +$24 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $216 +$98 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $88 −$85 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL Enjoy 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $104 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 66¢ $48 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.79 · official $40.23 (match) · 599 history records