Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:51:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1E 0x1e86…6b0f sports 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+1%) realized +$48 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%64W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$123
7 days+$479
14 days+$586
30 days+$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$100
other 22% +$243
world 4% −$300
tech 1% −$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +23.5% +11.7% 70% 70% +9.9%
≤30d 38 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 55% -3.7%
≤90d 91 -0.1% -9.6% 57% 57% -5.7%
all 116 -4.2% -13.3% 55% 55% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 55% -9.5%
10% -21.6% 54% -18.2%
15% -29.2% 51% -26.1%
20% -36.1% 36% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$55 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$48
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses64 / 52
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage108d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $152 $151 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $162 +$96 +60%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$133 +131%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$80 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$188 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$56 +55%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$75 +74%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$79 -78%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $8 −$7 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 +$44 +43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $92 +$40 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $100 −$65 -65%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $100 +$109 +109%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2 +$3 +165%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $100 −$99 -99%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $50 −$49 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $100 +$16 +16%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $47 +$61 +129%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $101 −$54 -53%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 28 $28 −$27 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 28 $12 −$12 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $214 −$210 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $200 +$210 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Kyrian Jacquet vs Marco Trungelliti May 24 $98 −$97 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $44 +$54 +124%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 23 $153 +$132 +86%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 22 $90 −$89 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Ignacio Buse May 19 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $81 +$105 +129%
Set Handicap: Etcheverry (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) May 09 $46 −$45 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Jaime Fa May 04 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) May 03 $51 +$51 +101%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk May 02 $25 −$25 -99%
Mauthausen: Jaime Faria vs Darwin Blanch May 02 $51 +$29 +57%
Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia Potapova May 01 $101 +$40 +40%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Apr 30 $25 −$25 -98%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Jiri Lehecka Apr 30 $51 +$29 +57%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $25 +$25 +97%
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Blockx (+1.5) Apr 28 $25 +$20 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $154 49m
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $162 6h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $235 6h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $41 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 12h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $61 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $157 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $177 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $66 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $101 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $101 3d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 58¢ $101 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $213 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 14¢ $23 3d
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $8 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $81 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $101 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $71 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $145 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.87 · official $150.87 (match) · 194 history records