Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:01:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1E 0x1e88…697d crypto 928 markets active 9h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$818 (-4%) realized −$851 · open +$33
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%302W / 617L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$109est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$128
7 days+$68
14 days−$63
30 days+$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$834
sports 19% −$664
other 4% +$107
weather 3% +$41
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -2.4% -11.7% 24% 24% -2.0%
≤30d 177 +21.3% +9.7% 33% 33% +0.9%
≤90d 919 -13.6% -21.9% 33% 29% -15.9%
all 919 -13.6% -21.9% 33% 29% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 29% -15.9%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 25% -24.0%
15% -36.2% 21% -31.3%
20% -42.4% 18% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$13 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized−$851
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses302 / 617
Est. fees paid−$109
Open positions2
Markets (closed)919 / 928
History coverage64d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 919 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $82 +$32 (+64%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $21 −$5 -24%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $41 −$40 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $21 −$2 -12%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $16 −$16 -96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 +$20 +129%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 +$33 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $16 −$15 -95%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $15 +$50 +325%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $36 +$67 +187%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $15 +$37 +244%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $0 $0 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $21 +$21 +102%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $31 +$60 +194%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $31 −$2 -5%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 +$229 +1116%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $31 +$33 +109%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 +$54 +175%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $29 −$29 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 37¢ $15 8h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $16 9h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 13h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 15¢ $15 23h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $41 27h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 18¢ $20 27h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $18 33h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $21 42h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 46h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway $1 46h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 27¢ $10 46h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 28¢ $3 46h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 31¢ $3 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 19¢ $20 2d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 26¢ $20 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 28¢ $15 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 73¢ $35 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $15 3d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 86¢ $54 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes $16 3d
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 32¢ $20 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $54 4d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 23¢ $15 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 28¢ $15 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $49 4d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Ecuado BUY 14¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.98 · official $112.98 (match) · 2195 history records