Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:38:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1e89…af95 sports 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$607 (+4%) realized +$540 · open +$67
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%47W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$806
7 days−$53
14 days−$213
30 days−$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$556
other 5% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +9.0% -1.4% 51% 51% -10.3%
≤30d 82 -1.6% -10.9% 52% 51% -11.1%
≤90d 82 -1.6% -10.9% 52% 51% -11.1%
all 86 +3.5% -6.4% 55% 53% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 53% -5.7%
10% -15.3% 51% -14.7%
15% -23.5% 41% -23.0%
20% -31.0% 29% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$123 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$399
Realized+$540
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses47 / 39
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage263d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 90¢ $268 $311 +$43 (+16%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Under 32¢ 44¢ $63 $87 +$24 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $185 −$184 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $151 −$151 -100%
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $200 +$200 +100%
Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Jun 29 $363 +$312 +86%
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Jun 29 $317 +$143 +45%
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 29 $230 +$317 +138%
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Jun 29 $198 +$78 +40%
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 29 $318 +$317 +100%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $126 +$105 +83%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $99 +$101 +101%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $101 −$99 -98%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $126 −$126 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $209 −$205 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $424 −$421 -99%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $185 −$181 -98%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $119 +$271 +226%
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $160 +$65 +41%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $75 +$75 +100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $198 −$198 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $117 −$115 -99%
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) Jun 27 $212 −$3 -2%
Game Handicap: Na`Vi (-1.5) vs HULIGANI (+1.5) Jun 27 $234 −$230 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $114 +$52 +46%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $138 +$54 +40%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $45 +$46 +101%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 26 $163 −$162 -99%
Norway vs. France: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $98 +$207 +212%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $55 +$23 +42%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $206 −$204 -99%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $48 +$67 +138%
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $129 −$128 -99%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $56 +$54 +97%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $52 −$51 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $64 −$64 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $188 −$188 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $59 +$95 +163%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $77 −$75 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $193 +$120 +62%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $19 $0 -2%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Jun 25 $173 −$171 -99%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Nigma Galaxy (+1.5) Jun 25 $34 −$33 -98%
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) Jun 24 $272 +$74 +27%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $56 +$102 +184%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $24 −$24 -97%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $36 +$84 +238%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Jaume Munar Jun 22 $96 +$70 +73%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $93 −$91 -98%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $34 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $148 +$95 +65%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 21 $59 +$94 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $65 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $270 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 13¢ $13 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 14¢ $14 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $151 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 45¢ $135 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 45¢ $23 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $200 7h
Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic BUY Dino Prizmic 53¢ $363 9h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 69¢ $294 10h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 69¢ $12 10h
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie BUY Michael Zheng 69¢ $12 10h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 42¢ $43 12h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 42¢ $152 12h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 42¢ $2 12h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 42¢ $9 12h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 42¢ $2 12h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 41¢ $22 12h
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta SELL Pablo Carreno Busta 100¢ $635 13h
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 50¢ $106 13h
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 50¢ $134 13h
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 50¢ $5 13h
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Pablo Carreno Busta 50¢ $72 13h
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 71¢ $198 14h
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $126 32h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 25¢ $101 34h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 68¢ $105 35h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 68¢ $21 35h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 49¢ $99 37h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 39¢ $209 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.57 · official $398.57 (match) · 255 history records