Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:33:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1E 0x1e8a…ed28 crypto 595 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (271 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$467 (-6%) realized −$441 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate49%289W / 305L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day271.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$546
14 days−$659
30 days−$659
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$683
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (271 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 335 -15.8% -23.8% 45% 31% -27.9%
≤30d 594 -11.4% -19.8% 49% 32% -17.4%
≤90d 594 -11.4% -19.8% 49% 32% -17.4%
all 594 -11.4% -19.8% 49% 32% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover271.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 32% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 21% -25.3%
15% -34.5% 15% -32.5%
20% -40.9% 11% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$441
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses289 / 305
Open positions1
Markets (closed)594 / 595
History coverage10d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day271.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 594 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Down 89¢ 42¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$15 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $45 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$5 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$8 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$9 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$8 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $15 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $6 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.99 · official $21.16 · 3208 history records