Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1E 0x1e90…26f0 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+35%) realized +$68 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$107
sports 17% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.4% -4.6% 40% 40% +33.7%
≤30d 5 +5.4% -4.6% 40% 40% +33.7%
≤90d 5 +5.4% -4.6% 40% 40% +33.7%
all 5 +5.4% -4.6% 40% 40% +33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.6% 40% +33.7%
10% -13.7% 40% +20.9%
15% -22.1% 40% +9.2%
20% -29.7% 20% -1.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$12 · ×4.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$68
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage5d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+16%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $76 +$27 +36%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$74 +291%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $20 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $25 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 39h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 41h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 41h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.24 · official $76.24 (match) · 15 history records