Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:32:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1E 0x1e96…c087 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$154 (+7%) realized +$80 · open +$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$203
other 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -18.9% -26.7% 36% 27% -4.5%
≤30d 11 -18.9% -26.7% 36% 27% -4.5%
≤90d 11 -18.9% -26.7% 36% 27% -4.5%
all 11 -18.9% -26.7% 36% 27% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.7% 27% -4.5%
10% -33.7% 27% -13.6%
15% -40.1% 18% -22.0%
20% -46.0% 18% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$32 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$319
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage6d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 62¢ $245 $319 +$74 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $740 −$145 -20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $526 +$45 +9%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $140 +$209 +149%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $167 −$26 -16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $294 −$23 -8%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $121 +$64 +53%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $249 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $249 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $345 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $346 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $394 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $246 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $148 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $322 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 35¢ $76 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $101 18h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $203 19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $349 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $140 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 75¢ $140 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $167 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $104 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $104 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $189 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $186 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $121 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 89¢ $125 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.40 · official $319.40 (match) · 27 history records