Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1E
0x1e9c…212c
other · 27 markets active 1h ago
8.5score
+$244 +64%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$244 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$30
Realized+$244
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses10 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)24 / 27
History coverage138d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit33%
Chart Positions 3 History 24 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$50
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 23¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Yes 31¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Yes 22¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? Yes 14¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Yes 22¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Yes 21¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Yes 23¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Yes $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Yes 51¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? Yes 46¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 30 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $20 +$11 +57%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 +$49 +478%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 04 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $20 +$30 +145%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $20 +$47 +234%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $10 +$60 +595%
Will Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Apr 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $19 +$11 +61%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-01? Feb 01 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $19 +$101 +524%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 79% +$285
sports 19% −$30
tech 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 46¢ $29 13d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 13d
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 19d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 19d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $32 26d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 26d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 33d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 34d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 37d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 39d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? SELL Yes 55¢ $21 39d
Will Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 39d
Will Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 39d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 39d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 40d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 40d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 54d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? SELL Yes 99¢ $67 55d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 55d
Will Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 60d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 60d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 62d
Will Arsenal FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 62d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 62d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 63d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 63d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +50.6% +36.3% 50% 50% +31.5%
≤90d 18 +42.5% +28.9% 39% 33% +40.9%
all 24 +44.1% +30.4% 42% 33% +53.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.4% 33% +53.8%
10% +17.9% 33% +39.1%
15% +6.5% 33% +25.6%
20% -3.9% 33% +13.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.17 · official $30.17 (match) · 52 history records