Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:22:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1e9c…c0a0 crypto 44 markets active 9d ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$112 (-7%) realized −$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate48%21W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$113
30 days−$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$168
sports 12% +$80
crypto 8% −$37
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 44 -24.0% -31.2% 48% 34% -16.8%
≤90d 44 -24.0% -31.2% 48% 34% -16.8%
all 44 -24.0% -31.2% 48% 34% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 34% -16.8%
10% -37.8% 30% -24.7%
15% -43.8% 25% -32.0%
20% -49.3% 9% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$26 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses21 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage17d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $399 −$395 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$105 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$46 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $141 +$67 +48%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$3 -29%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$37 +36%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 −$47 -77%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$44 +43%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$90 -88%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 +$106 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 01 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 01 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 01 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 31 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 31 $3 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 31 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 31 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 31 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 31 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 31 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 31 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 31 $10 +$5 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $298 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 9d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 9d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $307 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $247 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $209 9d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 10d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $141 10d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $137 10d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 10d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $14 10d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 10d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 10d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 10d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 10d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $12 10d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 10d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 76¢ $206 10d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $100 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records