Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:22:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ea4…bb6c other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$2 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%1W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$22
world 38% −$4
politics 7% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -7.5% -16.3% 10% 0% -14.1%
≤30d 10 -7.5% -16.3% 10% 0% -14.1%
≤90d 10 -7.5% -16.3% 10% 0% -14.1%
all 10 -7.5% -16.3% 10% 0% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 0% -14.1%
10% -24.3% 0% -22.3%
15% -31.6% 0% -29.8%
20% -38.3% 0% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses1 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 64¢ 63¢ $95 $93 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 25 $123 +$1 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $116 −$6 -5%
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Jun 25 $42 −$3 -6%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 25 $58 −$8 -14%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $120 −$5 -4%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $44 −$3 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $12 −$2 -16%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $5 $0 -8%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $41 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $41 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $43 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $43 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $37 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $39 2h
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $39 2h
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $42 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $40 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 3h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 6¢ $17 3h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 43¢ $85 3h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $9 7h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 5¢ $9 7h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 6¢ $30 8h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 41¢ $30 8h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $24 8h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 6¢ $24 8h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $45 8h
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 6¢ $28 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $73 8h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $42 8h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $42 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 9h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 9h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.04 · official $93.06 (match) · 45 history records