Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:25:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1E 0x1ea5…dc51 crypto 1019 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 198d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,268 (+0%) realized +$3,222 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate94%937W / 60L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$2,192per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$13,349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 198d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$13,976
other 2% −$189
weather 1% +$24
tech 0% +$63
sports 0% −$97
world 0% +$52
finance 0% −$4
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +3.4% -6.5% 100% 10% -9.4%
≤30d 138 +0.9% -8.7% 99% 8% -9.4%
≤90d 370 -2.1% -11.4% 95% 3% -9.5%
all 997 -0.2% -9.7% 94% 8% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 8% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 6% -17.7%
15% -26.2% 5% -25.6%
20% -33.5% 4% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,302) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$13 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×18.13 per $1 lost it wins $18.13
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$13,349
Realized+$3,222
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses937 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions22
Markets (closed)997 / 1019
History coverage198d ⚠
Avg bet$2,192
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 997 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,994 $5,997 +$3 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,010 $2,011 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,798 $1,799 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $944 $944 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $400 $400 +$0 (+0%)
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 94¢ 92¢ $400 $389 −$11 (-3%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $348 $355 +$7 (+2%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $296 $304 +$8 (+3%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $189 $199 +$10 (+5%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $188 $199 +$11 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $174 $198 +$24 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $160 $160 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 99¢ 100¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 95¢ 95¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 93¢ 91¢ $93 $91 −$2 (-2%)
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 83¢ 70¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-15%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 90¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $899 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? Jun 26 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $121 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$6 +55%
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $137 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 24? Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23? Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 23? Jun 23 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 23? Jun 23 $3,496 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 23? Jun 23 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 23? Jun 23 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $18 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1,127 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $1,421 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $3,996 +$4 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 21? Jun 22 $884 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 21? Jun 22 $677 +$1 +0%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +17%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$4 +34%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$5 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 19? Jun 19 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 19? Jun 19 $596 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $9 +$1 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $999 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,203 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 18 $11 $0 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,428 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,100 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,644 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $160 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $430 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $799 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $39 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $944 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $999 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $166 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $899 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $999 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $1,149 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $20 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $1,149 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $1,269 26h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $9 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $999 26h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $14 27h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $1 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,200 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $2,010 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $191 28h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $121 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $1,998 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $489 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $999 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $510 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,997 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $3,996 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C or below on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $30 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 64¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,349.04 · official $13,349.04 (match) · 3500 history records