Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:43:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ea7…d9f5 crypto 901 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$99 (-2%) realized −$125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate54%483W / 418L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day33.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$23
14 days−$137
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$137
other 8% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -18.9% -26.7% 33% 10% -11.6%
≤30d 901 -10.7% -19.2% 54% 25% -11.0%
≤90d 901 -10.7% -19.2% 54% 25% -11.0%
all 901 -10.7% -19.2% 54% 25% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 25% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 14% -19.5%
15% -34.0% 7% -27.3%
20% -40.5% 6% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses483 / 418
Open positions0
Markets (closed)901 / 901
History coverage28d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 901 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 25¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+300%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 87¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 81¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 84¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 24¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+316%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 91¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Up 70¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+43%)
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +21%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -99%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$4 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$2 +16%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +9%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +8%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$17 +1464%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $11 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $11 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 5h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $11 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $6 9h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $11 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 11h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 14h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 14h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 15h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 18h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $11 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 20h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 21h
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $11 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 22h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $11 23h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 25h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $11 27h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $11 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.18 · official $0.00 · 1424 history records