Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1ea8…ad75 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$477 (+12%) realized +$478 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$150
7 days−$124
14 days−$169
30 days−$1,269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$449
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -31.2% -37.8% 33% 33% -31.9%
≤30d 10 -48.9% -53.8% 20% 20% -77.4%
≤90d 14 +0.3% -9.2% 43% 43% +0.6%
all 14 +0.3% -9.2% 43% 43% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 43% +0.6%
10% -17.9% 36% -9.0%
15% -25.9% 36% -17.8%
20% -33.1% 29% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +42% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$316 vs −$181 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$478
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage34d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $151 +$102 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$74 +145%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $44 −$44 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 18 $626 +$133 +21%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner May 18 $620 +$536 +86%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 17 $881 +$366 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $198 +$682 +344%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 35¢ $102 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 20¢ $51 17h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $151 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $102 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $125 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY Legacy 41¢ $44 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 69¢ $45 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $45 10d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,017 19d
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven BUY Rico 8¢ $103 26d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $491 32d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 51¢ $129 32d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo BUY Natus Vincere 82¢ $626 32d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $437 33d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $444 33d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 22¢ $198 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.05 · official $99.05 (match) · 24 history records