Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:55:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1eab…4822 sports 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 367d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,907 (+15%) realized +$9,962 · open −$55
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%72W / 62L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$473per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$753est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$545now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$603
7 days−$5,586
14 days+$5,821
30 days+$10,235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$10,459
other 12% −$116
world 1% −$764
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -23.2% -30.5% 37% 37% -28.1%
≤30d 132 +7.4% -2.9% 55% 55% +5.2%
≤90d 132 +7.4% -2.9% 55% 55% +5.2%
all 134 +5.8% -4.3% 54% 54% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 54% +4.2%
10% -13.5% 53% -5.8%
15% -21.8% 50% -14.9%
20% -29.5% 47% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$517) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$436 vs −$351 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

367d coverage
Net worth$545
Realized+$9,962
Unrealized−$55
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses72 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$753
Open positions2
Markets (closed)134 / 136
History coverage367d
Avg bet$473
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $500 $403 −$97 (-19%)
Arda Güler: 5+ shots Yes 36¢ 51¢ $100 $142 +$42 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $508 +$603 +119%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,014 +$873 +86%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $507 −$500 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $204 −$200 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $406 +$445 +109%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $508 −$500 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $305 +$325 +107%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $305 −$300 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $305 −$300 -98%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $406 +$463 +114%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $406 −$400 -98%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $406 +$410 +101%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $306 −$300 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $407 −$400 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $682 +$460 +67%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $506 +$301 +60%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 18 $811 +$618 +76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $308 −$300 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $609 −$600 -98%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $508 −$500 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $506 +$341 +67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $203 +$205 +101%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $306 +$505 +165%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $607 +$410 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $414 +$207 +50%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $306 +$760 +248%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$210 +206%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $305 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $305 +$426 +140%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $304 +$273 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $204 +$485 +238%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $304 +$262 +86%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $165 −$165 -100%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $203 −$203 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $304 −$304 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $305 −$305 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $404 −$404 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arda Güler: 5+ shots BUY Yes 36¢ $102 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $508 1h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $507 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $1,014 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $508 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $204 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $406 7h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $508 7h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $305 8h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Vitality 41¢ $305 8h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 48¢ $305 11h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 46¢ $406 13h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 48¢ $406 14h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $306 27h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $407 28h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 49¢ $406 29h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $506 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $305 31h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $308 31h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 59¢ $682 33h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $811 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $609 35h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $102 36h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $406 36h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $507 38h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $203 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $306 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $607 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $544.73 · official $524.32 · 265 history records