Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:57:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1eb1…bebd other 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate8%8W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$12
politics 23% −$6
sports 12% +$8
world 4% −$1
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 75 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 104 +0.3% -9.2% 8% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses8 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage130d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $29 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $198 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $247 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $171 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $171 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 24 $150 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $180 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $143 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $169 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $142 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $168 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $160 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $152 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 11 $161 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $165 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $184 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $150 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $185 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 18 $143 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $355 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $134 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $270 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $334 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $154 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $156 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $166 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $310 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $338 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $152 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $140 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $486 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 08 $158 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $29 1h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $29 33h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 33h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 16d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 17d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 18d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $30 18d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $30 18d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 19d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 19d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 19d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 19d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $33 19d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $33 20d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 20d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 20d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 21d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 21d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 21d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 21d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 21d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 22d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $171 23d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $171 24d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $171 25d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $171 26d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $175 26d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $175 26d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $181 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.99 · official $26.99 (match) · 342 history records