Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1eb3…87b4 other 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,251 (-1%) realized −$1,251 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%40W / 144L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,215per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$21
14 days−$44
30 days−$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$30
politics 32% −$101
sports 12% −$1,202
world 3% +$42
economics 2% −$4
culture 2% −$5
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 41 -5.3% -14.3% 7% 2% -9.8%
≤90d 105 -1.1% -10.6% 8% 4% -10.2%
all 184 +1.9% -7.8% 22% 13% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 13% -10.0%
10% -16.6% 13% -18.7%
15% -24.7% 11% -26.5%
20% -32.1% 9% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,545) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$20 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized−$1,251
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses40 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)184 / 185
History coverage163d
Avg bet$1,215
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $215 $215 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $4,105 −$6 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $394 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $6,304 −$7 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,806 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 15 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $815 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $1,448 −$2 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 11 $1,169 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,173 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 10 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,177 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $5,954 −$6 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $986 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,017 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,333 −$4 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $2,042 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,627 −$4 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $73 −$73 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 04 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $5,780 −$7 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,893 −$5 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,991 −$5 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $82 +$71 +86%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $420 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $513 +$2 +0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $2,086 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $1,545 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,864 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,675 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $3,944 −$6 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $2,748 −$5 -0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $50 +$55 +109%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $2,197 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,091 −$1 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $42 +$20 +48%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,398 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 20 $1,176 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $2,362 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,348 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $669 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $670 3h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $422 2d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $423 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $394 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $394 4d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $380 4d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $380 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $850 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $852 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $807 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $808 5d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,021 6d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,023 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $943 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $944 6d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,038 6d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,039 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $813 8d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $815 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $798 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $799 9d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $215 10d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $1,168 11d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $1,169 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,171 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,173 11d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $606 11d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $607 12d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $856 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.87 · official $214.87 (match) · 625 history records