Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1E 0x1eb8…8f7f crypto 862 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$64 (+3%) realized +$66 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate88%761W / 100L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +4.9% -5.1% 93% 53% -4.5%
≤30d 148 +0.3% -9.2% 86% 75% -9.5%
≤90d 861 +1.4% -8.2% 88% 56% -8.0%
all 861 +1.4% -8.2% 88% 56% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 56% -8.0%
10% -17.0% 9% -16.8%
15% -25.0% 2% -24.8%
20% -32.4% 1% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses761 / 100
Open positions1
Markets (closed)861 / 862
History coverage82d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 861 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 1908 history records