Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:12:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1eb8…32e0 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$647 (+5%) realized +$647 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate100%19W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$628per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$345
7 days+$346
14 days+$577
30 days+$578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$259
sports 21% +$348
crypto 14% +$2
politics 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +8.4% -1.9% 100% 20% -2.4%
≤30d 9 +9.1% -1.2% 100% 22% -2.0%
≤90d 17 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 12% -4.5%
all 19 +4.7% -5.3% 100% 11% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 11% -4.9%
10% -14.4% 11% -14.0%
15% -22.6% 11% -22.3%
20% -30.2% 0% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$807) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$647
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses19 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage101d
Avg bet$628
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,151 +$2 +0%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $818 +$333 +41%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $808 +$8 +1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $809 +$1 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $807 +$1 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $800 +$2 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $577 +$229 +40%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $576 +$1 +0%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in May? Jun 01 $565 +$1 +0%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec May 10 $270 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun May 10 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Arvell Reese be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Apr 28 $574 +$1 +0%
Will Justin Bieber feature The Weeknd during his Coachella performance Apr 21 $561 +$14 +2%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of April 6 above $180? Apr 11 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on April 5? Apr 09 $560 +$1 +0%
Knicks vs. Rockets Apr 01 $558 +$2 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of March? Apr 01 $557 +$1 +0%
Bucks vs. Suns Mar 23 $545 +$12 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on March 20? Mar 21 $544 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 100¢ $1,151 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $818 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 50¢ $816 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $808 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 100¢ $809 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $807 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 100¢ $800 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $577 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $576 19d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in May? BUY No 100¢ $565 32d
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec BUY No 100¢ $270 51d
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun BUY No 100¢ $300 51d
Will Arvell Reese be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? BUY No 100¢ $574 64d
Will Justin Bieber feature The Weeknd during his Coachella performance BUY No 98¢ $561 71d
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of April 6 above $180? BUY Yes 100¢ $560 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on April 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $560 84d
Knicks vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 100¢ $558 86d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of March? BUY Yes 100¢ $557 94d
Bucks vs. Suns BUY Bucks 98¢ $545 96d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $544 100d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records