Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ebd…1c5d other 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$456 (-15%) realized −$450 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate16%16W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$247
14 days−$419
30 days−$478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$266
world 11% −$68
tech 10% −$39
crypto 7% −$21
sports 7% −$26
finance 6% −$22
economics 4% −$20
politics 2% −$23
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -16.8% -24.7% 24% 2% -24.8%
≤30d 102 -17.4% -25.2% 16% 1% -25.1%
≤90d 102 -17.4% -25.2% 16% 1% -25.1%
all 102 -17.4% -25.2% 16% 1% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 1% -25.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 1% -32.2%
15% -38.9% 1% -38.8%
20% -44.9% 1% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized−$450
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses16 / 86
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions16
Markets (closed)102 / 118
History coverage18d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 102 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? No 71¢ 63¢ $36 $32 −$4 (-11%)
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? No 77¢ 77¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? No 74¢ 73¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
FDA approves Daraxonrasib this year? No 28¢ 25¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-11%)
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win more than 87.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? U 87.5 57¢ 58¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Another critical Cloudflare incident by August 31, 2026? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027? No 68¢ 74¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Casemiro join Inter Miami? Yes 42¢ 96¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+128%)
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.16 by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1? Yes 53¢ 9¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will United Stables hit $3B in 2026? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? Jun 28 $6 −$2 -34%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 28 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-Ju Jun 28 $11 −$2 -20%
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Jun 27 $32 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Jun 26 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 26 $30 −$18 -59%
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? Jun 26 $7 $0 -5%
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $48 −$1 -3%
Over $3M committed to the Laso Finance public sale? Jun 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $3.1B? Jun 25 $39 −$14 -36%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? Jun 25 $31 −$11 -34%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026 Jun 25 $4 −$1 -31%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 25 $22 −$10 -43%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca Jun 25 $40 −$6 -16%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by July 31, 2026? Jun 25 $68 +$2 +3%
Fnatic merger/acquisition announced by September 1, 2026? Jun 24 $12 −$9 -75%
Will JP Morgan (JPM) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.15B? Jun 24 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $110 −$3 -3%
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $73 −$11 -15%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? Jun 24 $39 $0 +1%
Will Manel Kape fight Joshua Van next? Jun 24 $18 −$10 -54%
Will Bilibili Gaming Golden Road in 2026? Jun 24 $47 −$15 -32%
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 24 $12 −$2 -15%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? Jun 24 $2 $0 -10%
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Jun 23 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $14 $0 +1%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Jun 23 $68 −$14 -21%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $16 $0 +1%
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? Jun 23 $4 −$1 -22%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? Jun 23 $25 −$3 -14%
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $13 −$2 -14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 23 $14 −$7 -52%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 23 $45 −$3 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 23 $17 −$4 -27%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $1.30T and $1.40T on June 30? Jun 23 $43 −$34 -79%
Will T1 win MSI 2026? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Ma Jun 22 $1 $0 +6%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June? Jun 22 $41 −$23 -57%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $360 in June? Jun 22 $45 −$19 -42%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $540 in June? Jun 22 $31 −$10 -34%
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $67 $0 +0%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 in June? Jun 22 $6 −$1 -20%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 in June? Jun 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Jun 22 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $28 −$7 -26%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 22 $13 −$4 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? BUY No 74¢ $15 27m
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 27m
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 38m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $40 40m
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? SELL No 72¢ $14 1h
Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? SELL No 6¢ $1 1h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $43 1h
Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? SELL No 9¢ $3 2h
Will Sofia host Eurovision 2027? BUY No 12¢ $6 2h
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? BUY No 72¢ $15 2h
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 3h
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 4h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 42¢ $42 8h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 21¢ $10 9h
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 9h
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 9h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 21¢ $10 12h
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-Ju SELL No 17¢ $4 15h
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-Ju SELL No 18¢ $0 15h
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-Ju SELL No 18¢ $2 15h
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-Ju SELL No 18¢ $3 15h
Will 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-Ju BUY No 22¢ $11 15h
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 21h
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 24h
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? BUY No 77¢ $23 25h
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win more than 87.5 games in the 2026 ML BUY U 87.5 57¢ $11 29h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 29¢ $2 29h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 31¢ $2 29h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week SELL Yes 31¢ $2 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.17 · official $153.25 (match) · 515 history records