Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ec1…e283 crypto 138 markets active 4d ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-3%) realized −$8 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%61W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days−$0
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$14
other 3% −$4
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 47% -5.8%
≤30d 137 -6.8% -15.7% 45% 43% -15.6%
≤90d 137 -6.8% -15.7% 45% 43% -15.6%
all 137 -6.8% -15.7% 45% 43% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 43% -15.6%
10% -23.8% 41% -23.7%
15% -31.1% 36% -31.0%
20% -37.9% 34% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses61 / 76
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage25d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -23%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +118%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -21%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -13%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +190%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 358 history records