Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:12:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1E 0x1ec6…50cd sports 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,365 (+3%) realized +$2,119 · open +$246
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%50W / 51L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$668per market
Trades / day12.8pace
Fees−$537est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,549now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,036
7 days+$2,244
14 days+$287
30 days+$2,239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$1,956
other 34% +$4,753
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +23.5% +11.8% 62% 46% -4.4%
≤30d 97 -3.8% -13.0% 48% 36% -6.4%
≤90d 101 -2.9% -12.1% 50% 38% -6.0%
all 101 -2.9% -12.1% 50% 38% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 38% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 34% -15.0%
15% -28.2% 25% -23.2%
20% -35.3% 19% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$691) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$392 vs −$341 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$1,549
Realized+$2,119
Unrealized+$246
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses50 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$537
Open positions1
Markets (closed)101 / 102
History coverage32d
Avg bet$668
Trades / day12.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? No 84¢ 100¢ $1,304 $1,549 +$246 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $419 +$287 +68%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva Jun 24 $1,359 +$516 +38%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $252 +$69 +27%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4,569 +$291 +6%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $576 +$7 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Kimberly Birrell vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 23 $2,593 +$666 +26%
Targu Mures: Miguel Damas vs Benjamin Hassan Jun 23 $69 −$69 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $471 −$459 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Eva Lys vs Emma Navarro Jun 23 $752 +$444 +59%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,900 +$20 +0%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $350 −$350 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $1,300 −$1,290 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,075 −$1,075 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $269 +$83 +31%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $2,719 +$656 +24%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 22 $1,072 +$128 +12%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $750 +$1,020 +136%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 22 $175 +$3 +2%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 22 $54 −$54 -100%
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 22 $1,181 −$1,181 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 22 $1,320 −$1,314 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $1,862 +$2,027 +109%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3,450 +$1,550 +45%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9,719 +$361 +4%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $691 −$691 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 16 $320 −$300 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,299 +$2,521 +194%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $842 +$2,958 +351%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $450 +$550 +122%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $114 +$8 +7%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $2,140 −$2,041 -95%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,205 −$2,205 -100%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $680 +$20 +3%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $877 −$877 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 11 $83 −$83 -100%
Ilkley: Kayla Day vs Mary Stoiana Jun 11 $406 −$406 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 11 $320 −$320 -100%
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh Jun 11 $367 −$367 -100%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 11 $715 −$715 -100%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $1,275 +$217 +17%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 09 $854 −$354 -41%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Ognjen Milic Jun 09 $562 +$42 +8%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $88 −$84 -96%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $1,225 +$525 +43%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $201 −$51 -25%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $174 +$71 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $1,310 47m
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 94¢ $42 55m
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $18 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $13 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $133 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $7 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $27 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $30 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $66 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $8 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $19 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $46 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $6 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Caroline Werner vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 72¢ $1,359 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $2 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $15 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $182 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $6 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $29 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $20 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $50 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $238 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $7 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $36 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $1 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $3 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $364 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,549.22 · official $1,549.22 (match) · 530 history records