Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:39:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1E 0x1ec8…3b29 sports 41 markets active 22h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$632 (+22%) realized +$632 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$2
14 days+$13
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$626
sports 5% +$6
politics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +15.2% +4.2% 57% 57% -1.4%
≤30d 29 +20.7% +9.2% 55% 55% +4.5%
≤90d 34 +3.0% -6.8% 47% 47% -5.9%
all 40 +2.5% -7.2% 48% 48% +11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 48% +11.0%
10% -16.1% 48% +0.4%
15% -24.2% 48% -9.3%
20% -31.6% 48% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$53 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$632
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage208d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $90 $90 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paul vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 18 $3 +$3 +101%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $3 +$4 +108%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $4 +$4 +100%
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 11 $4 +$3 +96%
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 09 $4 +$3 +92%
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 08 $4 +$4 +108%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 06 $4 +$4 +96%
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $5 +$6 +109%
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Montedio Yamagata vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $5 +$5 +96%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $6 +$5 +93%
Berrettini vs. Comesana: Match O/U 38.5 May 30 $6 −$6 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 May 27 $3 +$3 +93%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 May 27 $3 +$3 +101%
ITF Tauste-Zaragoza: Luisina Giovannini vs Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De May 27 $6 $0 -2%
Set 1 Winner: Griekspoor vs Arnaldi May 26 $6 +$7 +113%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $6 +$6 +100%
Luca Van Assche vs. Patrick Kypson: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 25 $6 $0 -2%
Hokkaidō Consadole Sapporo vs. Júbilo Iwata: O/U 2.5 May 23 $6 −$6 -99%
ITF Litija: Ziga Sesko vs Theo Papamalamis May 21 $6 +$6 +100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 May 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5 May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Tam May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Charaeva vs. Korpatsch: Match O/U 21.5 May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Piros vs. Forejtek: Match O/U 21.5 May 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 21, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Nov 22 $1,086 +$1,086 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 4PM ET Nov 22 $232 +$232 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 3PM ET Nov 22 $311 +$311 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 2PM ET Nov 21 $556 −$556 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 1PM ET Nov 21 $232 −$232 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 12PM ET Nov 21 $216 −$216 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Under 49¢ $1 21h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 21h
Paul vs. Zandschulp: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 49¢ $3 43h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $3 2d
Borges vs. Auger-Aliassime: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 52¢ $4 3d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $3 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $3 5d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 50¢ $1 5d
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $0 6d
Zhang vs. Mannarino: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 49¢ $4 6d
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 7d
Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 7d
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) BUY Baluska 50¢ $5 8d
Set Handicap: Simundza (-1.5) vs Baluska (+1.5) BUY Baluska 50¢ $0 8d
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 9d
Yastremska vs. Bejlek: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 52¢ $1 9d
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 48¢ $0 10d
Kokkinakis vs. Barrios: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 48¢ $4 10d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY No 51¢ $1 12d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. BUY No 51¢ $3 12d
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 13d
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 51¢ $0 13d
Donski vs. Duran: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 51¢ $4 13d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori BUY Bolelli/Vavassori 50¢ $4 14d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Bolelli/Vavassori BUY Bolelli/Vavassori 50¢ $2 14d
Radivojevic vs. Ristic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 53¢ $3 15d
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $3 16d
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $0 16d
Cretu vs. Vasami: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.45 · official $100.45 (match) · 122 history records