Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1E
0x1eca…6089
politics · 141 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
+$1,311 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,311 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$191
Realized+$1,311
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses28 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
Avg bet$1,829
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit72%
Chart Positions 1 History 140 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$106
14 days−$153
30 days+$1,419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $191 $191 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $2,460 −$4 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,084 −$4 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,441 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,240 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $6,427 −$9 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,682 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $2,752 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,432 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $885 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $3,441 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,149 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $4,641 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $4,288 −$6 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 05 $42 −$42 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 05 $69 −$69 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 05 $56 +$69 +124%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $3,285 −$2 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $845 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $1,536 +$5 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $3,797 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $1,378 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $1,446 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $1,707 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $2,965 −$4 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $1,641 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 25 $1,221 −$2 -0%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $77 +$42 +55%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $4,365 −$5 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $4,693 −$5 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $3,215 −$5 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $60 +$95 +158%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $4,174 −$4 -0%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $74 +$37 +50%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $1,637 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 20 $1,488 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $4,698 −$5 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,610 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $1,669 −$3 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $1,572 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $1,618 −$2 -0%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 18 $972 +$1,520 +156%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $1,180 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $4,820 −$6 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,571 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $8,073 −$9 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 41% −$123
other 36% +$1,195
sports 18% +$275
culture 2% −$6
world 1% −$15
economics 1% −$5
crypto 1% +$7
finance 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,427 1h
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,429 3h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,428 4h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,430 6h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,439 26h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,441 27h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,239 28h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,240 30h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,533 31h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,536 34h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,348 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,350 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,351 2d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,353 2d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,680 3d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,682 3d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $191 3d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,577 4d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,579 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,389 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,391 4d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,429 5d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,432 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $883 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $885 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,548 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,550 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,148 6d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 34¢ $56 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,149 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 46 +3.0% -6.8% 15% 11% -8.1%
≤90d 114 -3.6% -12.7% 17% 12% -9.2%
all 140 +2.5% -7.2% 20% 16% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 16% -9.1%
10% -16.1% 16% -17.8%
15% -24.2% 13% -25.7%
20% -31.6% 10% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.46 · official $191.46 (match) · 507 history records