Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ecb…a425 other 249 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 233L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$41
sports 26% −$21
politics 8% −$7
crypto 7% −$4
culture 6% −$6
economics 5% −$14
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 165 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage140d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $373 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $319 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $405 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $569 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $430 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $184 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $408 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $335 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $740 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $482 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $382 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $190 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $581 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $290 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $410 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $140 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $357 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $433 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $303 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $328 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $203 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $313 −$2 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $333 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $686 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $375 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $300 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $148 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $276 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 5m
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $53 2h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $53 4h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 5h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 6h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 11h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 12h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 15h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 17h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 20h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 22h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 26h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 28h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $53 28h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $53 31h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 33h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 35h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 36h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 37h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $54 39h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $54 41h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 45h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 46h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $54 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $54 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.47 · official $52.47 (match) · 1482 history records