Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:44:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1E
0x1ecc…ca97
crypto · 68 markets active 2h ago
3.0score
−$4,495 -26%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,963 · open −$51
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,165
Realized−$3,963
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses35 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage160d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,933
7 days−$3,933
14 days−$3,933
30 days−$3,933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6,215 $6,165 −$51 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - January 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - January 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $100? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - January 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $10,334 −$3,933 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 08 $4 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 08 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 08 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 08 $4 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Mar 08 $7 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 08 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Mar 08 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 08 $9 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 08 $3 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Mar 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 08 $7 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 08 $7 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 08 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 08 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $4 $0 -0%
Will Bangladesh recognize Israel by June 30? Mar 08 $1 $0 -23%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 08 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Mar 08 $44 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 08 $20 +$24 +117%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 07 $4 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 07 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 07 $13 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 3PM ET Mar 06 $8 +$4 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 11AM ET Mar 06 $9 +$3 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10AM ET Mar 06 $18 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 6? Mar 06 $8 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 06 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 06 $3 −$2 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 06 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Mar 06 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 06 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 06 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 06 $3 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 06 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Mar 06 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 06 $3 −$2 -61%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 February 16-22? Feb 20 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Sinners win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 20 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026? Feb 20 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 16 above $100? Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
March Fed Derivative: "25bps cut" flips "Pause" by Feb 28? Feb 20 $1 $0 -35%
XRP Up or Down - January 9, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jan 09 $2 −$2 -98%
XRP Up or Down - January 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 09 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - January 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 09 $7 −$7 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jan 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 98% −$3,983
crypto 2% −$28
politics 0% −$1
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $44 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1,742 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4,615 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6,402 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $4 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $4 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $4 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $4 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $4 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $4 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $3 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $3 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $3 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $3 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 98d
Ethereum Up or Down - March 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -38.1% -44.0% 0% 0% -44.0%
≤30d 1 -38.1% -44.0% 0% 0% -44.0%
≤90d 1 -38.1% -44.0% 0% 0% -44.0%
all 67 +8.1% -2.2% 52% 31% -43.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 31% -43.0%
10% -11.5% 15% -48.5%
15% -20.1% 7% -53.4%
20% -27.9% 3% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,164.70 · official $6,164.70 (match) · 173 history records