Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1ecc…3ed9 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$3,454 (+14%) realized +$3,489 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,434per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$221est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,767now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +4.6% -5.3% 69% 50% +5.0%
≤30d 16 +4.6% -5.3% 69% 50% +5.0%
≤90d 16 +4.6% -5.3% 69% 50% +5.0%
all 16 +4.6% -5.3% 69% 50% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.3% 50% +5.0%
10% -14.4% 38% -5.1%
15% -22.7% 31% -14.3%
20% -30.2% 12% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$415 vs −$257 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.56 per $1 lost it wins $3.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$3,767
Realized+$3,489
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$221
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage6d
Avg bet$1,434
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $3,802 $3,767 −$35 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $3,539 +$326 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,605 +$931 +36%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2,254 +$353 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,414 +$838 +59%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,547 −$1,134 -44%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2,402 +$149 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,576 +$823 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,099 +$479 +44%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $906 +$193 +21%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $619 +$287 +46%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $567 +$54 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $429 +$137 +32%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $508 −$118 -23%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $51 −$22 -42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $10 −$6 -62%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $5 −$4 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $3,855 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,865 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $3,539 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3,536 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $2,605 9h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,607 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $2,254 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,252 11h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1,414 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $0 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $1,413 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2,547 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $2,402 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1,576 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1,099 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $906 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $906 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $619 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $620 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $567 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 97¢ $566 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $429 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 35¢ $390 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 14¢ $30 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 4¢ $4 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 1¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 4¢ $5 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $10 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $51 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $508 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,766.97 · official $3,766.97 (match) · 34 history records