Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:58:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1ecd…43e5 world 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+3%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$2
crypto 13% +$1
other 8% −$2
politics 7% $0
sports 4% +$8
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 -0.3% -9.8% 17% 0% -9.4%
all 18 -0.1% -9.6% 67% 6% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 6% -6.4%
10% -18.3% 6% -15.3%
15% -26.2% 6% -23.5%
20% -33.4% 6% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.22 per $1 lost it wins $5.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage476d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $9 $0 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 28 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 +2%
Democratic senator calls on Fetterman to resign in May? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 23–30? May 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 26 $11 +$1 +7%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $19 +$2 +10%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Friday? Mar 11 $21 $0 +1%
Lehigh vs. Loyola Maryland Mar 06 $13 +$8 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $32 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 30¢ $23 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $18 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $1 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $1 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $1 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $9 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $27 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $27 14d
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? SELL No 100¢ $10 359d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $10 362d
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $1 365d
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? BUY No 96¢ $10 392d
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 23–30? SELL No 100¢ $10 392d
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 23–30? BUY No 99¢ $10 392d
Democratic senator calls on Fetterman to resign in May? SELL No 98¢ $10 392d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records