Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:54:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ecd…9b27 crypto 201 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$372 (+4%) realized +$412 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate53%105W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$168
14 days+$168
30 days+$352
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$842
weather 17% −$308
crypto 13% −$45
sports 7% −$148
politics 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -34.3% -40.5% 60% 20% -1.1%
≤30d 197 -21.9% -29.3% 53% 39% -5.6%
≤90d 197 -21.9% -29.3% 53% 39% -5.6%
all 197 -21.9% -29.3% 53% 39% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 39% -5.6%
10% -36.1% 30% -14.6%
15% -42.3% 17% -22.9%
20% -47.9% 7% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$412
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses105 / 92
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)197 / 201
History coverage25d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Ante Budimir: 3+ shots Yes 34¢ 18¢ $19 $10 −$9 (-49%)
Will the announcers say "Off Target" during the Panama vs England FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 32¢ 22¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $568 +$21 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $206 +$19 +9%
Ali Al Hamadi: 2+ shots Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,000 +$158 +16%
Will Starmer say "Deep" or "Deeply" during resignation? Jun 22 $29 −$29 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2,963 +$758 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$21 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $100 +$37 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$23 +239%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 09 $25 +$7 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 09 $10 +$22 +218%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 8? Jun 09 $25 +$11 +42%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $50 +$13 +26%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Jun 09 $50 +$19 +38%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$5 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$8 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $56 +$15 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $32 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$9 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 9? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Andreescu vs. Mertens: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 08 $2 −$1 -98%
Andreescu vs. Mertens: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Andreescu vs. Mertens: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Sachko vs. Watanuki: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $3 −$2 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun Jun 08 $1 $0 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Jun Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 49°F or below on June Jun 08 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Jun Jun 08 $0 $0 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5 Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$4 -78%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 08 $9 −$8 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5 −$3 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 08 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 08 $25 −$25 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 08 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 08 $25 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? Jun 08 $15 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 08 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 08 $25 +$9 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $50 +$20 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $152 +$65 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $25 +$7 +30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 07 $10 −$4 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ante Budimir: 3+ shots BUY Yes 34¢ $19 3m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $589 7m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $102 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $435 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $21 10h
Will the announcers say "Off Target" during the Panama vs England FIFA BUY Yes 32¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 19h
Ali Al Hamadi: 2+ shots BUY Yes 37¢ $1 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,000 4d
Will Starmer say "Deep" or "Deeply" during resignation? BUY Yes 86¢ $29 5d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 15d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 17d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $2,579 17d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $74 17d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $49 17d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 17d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $27 17d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $182 17d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 79¢ $10 18d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 9? BUY No 86¢ $20 19d
Andreescu vs. Mertens: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 19d
Andreescu vs. Mertens: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 19d
Andreescu vs. Mertens: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 19d
Andreescu vs. Mertens: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 19d
Andreescu vs. Mertens: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 19d
Andreescu vs. Mertens: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 0¢ $10 19d
Andreescu vs. Mertens: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.03 · official $29.04 (match) · 581 history records