Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:55:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ed1…033a world 216 markets active 0h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,899 (-2%) realized −$8,891 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate76%164W / 51L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,046per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$234
7 days−$1,103
14 days−$808
30 days−$11,761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% −$9,471
other 17% +$101
sports 5% +$518
finance 1% +$39
politics 0% +$18
crypto 0% −$199
tech 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -1.2% -10.6% 76% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 60 -1.7% -11.0% 77% 2% -14.2%
≤90d 115 -3.4% -12.6% 76% 3% -11.3%
all 215 -4.1% -13.2% 76% 5% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 5% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 1% -19.8%
15% -29.1% 0% -27.6%
20% -36.0% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$2,763) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$437 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$8,891
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses164 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)215 / 216
History coverage180d
Avg bet$2,046
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 95¢ 91¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,763 +$19 +1%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4,994 −$48 -1%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $101 −$1 -1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,001 +$29 +1%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,311 +$37 +1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $400 +$11 +3%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,223 +$59 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,822 +$83 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,950 +$45 +1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $78 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $155 +$1 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $300 +$9 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,460 +$82 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $112 +$2 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $501 +$19 +4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,015 +$50 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14,956 +$151 +1%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $92 +$1 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5,574 +$279 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $503 +$9 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $7,580 −$1,780 -24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,901 +$106 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $6,957 −$226 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $6,957 +$45 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $8,566 −$204 -2%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $378 +$10 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $460 −$224 -49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 13 $343 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $13,051 +$274 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $1,246 +$17 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $75 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $167 −$8 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $5,002 +$48 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $8,338 +$90 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $9,136 +$86 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $3,038 −$168 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2,430 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $682 +$2 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $4,570 +$7 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $5,761 +$205 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $1,606 +$68 +4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 05 $425 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $191 +$4 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $50 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $1,964 +$82 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1,039 +$3 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $570 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,779 +$37 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $441 +$9 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 0m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $12 1m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $50 1m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $646 1m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $631 1m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $475 1m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 5m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $463 14m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $9 14m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $25 14m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $575 15m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $102 16m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $98 16m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $217 16m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $15 18m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $98 21m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $21 22m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $78 22m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $98 23m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $12 29m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $34 29m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $490 29m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $44 29m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $388 30m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $23 31m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 98¢ $942 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $4,628 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $69 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.60 · official $194.76 · 1959 history records