Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1eda…d3c2 sports 219 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%15W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 24% −$5
other 23% −$4
politics 19% −$3
crypto 10% −$1
economics 10% −$1
world 5% −$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 219 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses15 / 204
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)219 / 219
History coverage172d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 219 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $27 $0 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $77 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 04 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 04 $184 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $113 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? Mar 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 04 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $86 $0 -0%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 04 $78 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March? Mar 04 $34 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 04 $294 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 04 $118 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 04 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $83 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 04 $71 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 04 $66 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $124 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $96 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 04 $37 $0 -1%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $122 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $104 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 04 $74 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $166 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 04 $125 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $133 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $254 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $27 1h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $27 5h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $33 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $33 8d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $29 15d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $30 16d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $32 23d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $32 23d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $33 36d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $34 37d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $33 108d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $33 108d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 108d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 108d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 108d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 108d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $34 108d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $34 108d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 108d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 108d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $39 108d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $39 108d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $30 108d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $30 108d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $26 108d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $26 108d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $33 108d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $33 108d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 97¢ $33 108d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 873 history records