Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ede…59e6 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$95 (+8%) realized +$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day49.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$312
other 14% −$4
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 45% -32.4%
≤30d 22 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 45% -32.4%
≤90d 22 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 45% -32.4%
all 22 -0.9% -10.3% 50% 45% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 45% -32.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 45% -38.9%
15% -26.7% 36% -44.8%
20% -33.9% 32% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$44 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day49.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $107 −$107 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $33 −$29 -88%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 27 $67 −$58 -87%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $10 +$9 +88%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $152 +$14 +9%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $41 +$12 +29%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $3 $0 -16%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Team to Take First Corner Jun 27 $51 +$37 +73%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $6 +$4 +60%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $5 +$2 +30%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -73%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $165 −$12 -7%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $86 −$43 -50%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $153 −$69 -45%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $203 −$166 -82%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $5 +$10 +196%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $10 +$11 +103%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $15 +$6 +36%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $32 +$16 +51%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $101 +$53 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 46m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 9¢ $4 47m
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) SELL Belgium 7¢ $9 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL Belgium 90¢ $19 1h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium 51¢ $67 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 92¢ $68 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 70¢ $33 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 75¢ $33 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $107 2h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Team to Take First Corner SELL Egypt 93¢ $88 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 2h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $6 2h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 47¢ $10 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 68¢ $50 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 55¢ $19 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 67¢ $49 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $20 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 67¢ $49 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 68¢ $102 3h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Team to Take First Corner BUY Egypt 53¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? SELL Yes 84¢ $152 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? BUY Yes 90¢ $165 3h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 38¢ $43 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records