Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:14:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1E 0x1ee1…2d1a crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 548d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$98 (-3%) realized −$97 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$94
14 days−$94
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% −$160
other 23% −$1
politics 3% +$1
culture 1% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -83.2% -84.8% 17% 0% -40.3%
≤30d 6 -83.2% -84.8% 17% 0% -40.3%
≤90d 6 -83.2% -84.8% 17% 0% -40.3%
all 41 -5.9% -14.9% 56% 27% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 27% -14.4%
10% -23.0% 27% -22.6%
15% -30.4% 27% -30.1%
20% -37.3% 27% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$60 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

548d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$97
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage548d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 85¢ 81¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $181 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$92 +92%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$93 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$98 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 25 $70 +$63 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$93 +93%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 25 $70 +$58 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$93 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 25 $50 +$46 +92%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 25 $70 +$65 +93%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 25 $100 +$93 +93%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 25 $110 −$108 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 25 $70 −$69 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 25 $70 −$69 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 25 $120 +$116 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 25 $30 +$106 +352%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 25 $122 −$120 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 25 $120 −$118 -98%
Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (De Feb 24 $18 $0 +1%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's December 2025 meeti Dec 20 $17 $0 +2%
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? Dec 01 $10 −$2 -21%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Dec 01 $106 −$106 -100%
Will "Americana" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $1.5m? Sep 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Olympique Lyon play in Ligue 1? Aug 20 $17 $0 +1%
Plasma >$800M market cap (FDV) one day after launch? Jul 16 $11 $0 -2%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander score the most total points in the NBA Fi Jun 27 $17 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump issue fewer than 15 executive orders in May? Jun 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for th Jun 10 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 22 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the May 05 $17 $0 +1%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 17 $583 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $22 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $56 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $52 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 20h
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 46d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $100 110d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $100 110d
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $100 110d
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $100 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $100 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $70 110d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $100 110d
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $70 110d
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $100 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $100 110d
Solana Up or Down - February 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $50 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.38 · official $26.38 (match) · 100 history records