Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:32:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ee3…1f6e other 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-7%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$101
14 days−$87
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$81
sports 12% −$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -14.5% -22.6% 36% 36% -23.4%
≤30d 37 -12.4% -20.8% 41% 41% -15.0%
≤90d 37 -12.4% -20.8% 41% 41% -15.0%
all 37 -12.4% -20.8% 41% 41% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 41% -15.0%
10% -28.3% 38% -23.1%
15% -35.3% 32% -30.6%
20% -41.6% 30% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$32 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)37 / 40
History coverage12d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $9 +$31 +339%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $9 +$5 +65%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $9 +$6 +67%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $54 +$46 +86%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$75 +307%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $38 −$37 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $77 +$11 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $75 +$23 +30%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $37 +$63 +172%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $69 +$31 +46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$65 +188%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $49 +$51 +105%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $77 +$23 +30%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $64 +$36 +57%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 −$20 -80%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $120 −$118 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $81 +$119 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $54 +$36 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 15m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 16m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 16m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $15 17m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 37h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 37h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 37h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 45h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $18 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 4d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $38 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 4d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 88¢ $88 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $97 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 4d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $75 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.65 · official $35.65 (match) · 77 history records