Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ee3…8d05 sports 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$26 (+13%) realized +$35 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$5
other 25% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -2.4% -11.7% 44% 44% -3.2%
≤30d 16 -2.4% -11.7% 44% 44% -3.2%
≤90d 16 -2.4% -11.7% 44% 44% -3.2%
all 16 -2.4% -11.7% 44% 44% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 44% -3.2%
10% -20.1% 44% -12.5%
15% -27.9% 44% -21.0%
20% -34.9% 44% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage4d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 30¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 34¢ 36¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs XLG Gaming 22¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$8 +158%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$3 -63%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $27 +$4 +13%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $17 +$21 +120%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $15 +$19 +124%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -99%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $10 +$8 +74%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$14 +96%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $13 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $2 19m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $5 21m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $10 28m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 15¢ $2 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 17¢ $2 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $5 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 14h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 22¢ $2 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming $2 23h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 93¢ $21 23h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 44¢ $10 23h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 36¢ $10 24h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 17¢ $5 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 24h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $5 24h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 38¢ $2 24h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 81¢ $13 24h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 63¢ $10 25h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 90¢ $38 36h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 40¢ $17 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 90¢ $17 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 38h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 30¢ $4 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 51¢ $5 2d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Heretics 51¢ $10 2d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 31¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 44¢ $15 3d
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 80¢ $18 3d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 45¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.87 · official $16.88 (match) · 40 history records