Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ee6…d412 crypto 185 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$573 (-10%) realized −$500 · open −$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%54W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$78
14 days−$78
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$895
other 26% +$165
sports 13% −$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -5.8% -14.8% 27% 27% -15.1%
≤30d 85 -5.8% -14.8% 27% 27% -15.1%
≤90d 157 -5.2% -14.3% 34% 32% -20.2%
all 157 -5.2% -14.3% 34% 32% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 32% -20.2%
10% -22.5% 28% -27.8%
15% -29.9% 25% -34.8%
20% -36.8% 24% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$20 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$500
Unrealized−$73
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses54 / 103
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions26
Markets (closed)157 / 185
History coverage80d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 157 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Under 95¢ 99¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Over 18¢ 5¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 17¢ 3¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-84%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$27 +105%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$24 +474%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$11 -42%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $132 +$29 +22%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $20 −$5 -24%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $102 −$3 -3%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $35 −$8 -22%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -80%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$6 -62%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$6 -62%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 −$2 -72%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $15 +$6 +40%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $59 +$56 +96%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$17 +165%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $30 −$17 -59%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$11 -27%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$29 +96%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$4 -44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -43%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$1 -26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$6 +307%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +37%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $100 −$29 -29%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $4 +$11 +274%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 95¢ $24 22m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 18¢ $10 23m
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 34m
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY Yes 8¢ $5 35m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 39m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 43m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $52 44m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $50 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $20 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $5 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 8h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 8h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 9h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 9h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 9h
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 9h
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 9h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 9h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 9h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 9h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 31¢ $5 9h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 9h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.42 · official $134.50 (match) · 419 history records