Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:42:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1ee7…4ea8 other 250 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$407 (+3%) realized +$348 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate88%179W / 25L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$3,955now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$11
14 days+$40
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% +$182
economics 17% +$111
world 16% +$63
crypto 12% +$33
tech 10% +$24
politics 9% −$5
finance 6% −$14
sports 2% +$9
culture 0% +$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +49.6% +35.3% 100% 50% +15.1%
≤30d 26 +12.7% +1.9% 85% 31% -4.1%
≤90d 127 +8.2% -2.1% 87% 34% -6.5%
all 204 +6.1% -4.0% 88% 28% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 28% -6.6%
10% -13.2% 12% -15.5%
15% -21.6% 8% -23.7%
20% -29.3% 4% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$3,955
Realized+$348
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses179 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions46
Markets (closed)204 / 250
History coverage227d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JPMorgan Chase fail by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $511 $527 +$16 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $340 $350 +$9 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $275 $283 +$8 (+3%)
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $233 $237 +$4 (+2%)
Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $198 $202 +$4 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $187 $189 +$3 (+1%)
Will Morgan Stanley fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $177 $179 +$2 (+1%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 74¢ 86¢ $148 $173 +$25 (+17%)
Will BNP Paribas fail by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $164 $165 +$1 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 92¢ 81¢ $138 $122 −$15 (-11%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 89¢ 92¢ $115 $119 +$4 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $95 $98 +$3 (+3%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $85 $86 +$0 (+0%)
Will HSBC fail by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $78 $79 +$1 (+2%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $65 $70 +$5 (+7%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $61 $69 +$8 (+13%)
Will Citigroup fail by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+3%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+4%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 94¢ 100¢ $47 $50 +$3 (+6%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 29 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $10 +$10 +96%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $274 +$26 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +48%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 +43%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $40 −$13 -33%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $13 +$7 +59%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 12 $8 +$19 +232%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? Jun 10 $77 +$3 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 10 $44 +$5 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $120 +$6 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? Jun 07 $9 +$1 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 07 $87 +$3 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? Jun 04 $98 −$3 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 03 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 03 $79 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 01 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $44 +$6 +14%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 01 $88 +$2 +3%
Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $108 +$12 +12%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $7 −$3 -47%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? May 31 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? May 29 $46 +$1 +3%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $4 −$2 -48%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? May 27 $19 +$1 +4%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? May 26 $18 −$14 -77%
Crude Oil all time high by April 30? May 20 $18 +$2 +14%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? May 19 $15 +$5 +31%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $15 −$6 -42%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? May 17 $25 +$4 +17%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 A May 17 $48 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 17 $9 +$1 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? May 17 $9 +$1 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 17 $78 +$2 +2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in April? May 17 $9 +$1 +15%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? May 17 $8 +$2 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? May 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in April? May 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 17 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 17 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 17 $55 +$3 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 17 $19 +$1 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? May 17 $47 +$3 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 17 $48 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $46 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 90¢ $1 13d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 90¢ $26 13d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 90¢ $9 13d
Will BNP Paribas fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $149 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 13d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 13d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 14d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 14d
Will BNP Paribas fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 14d
Will HSBC fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 16d
Will BNP Paribas fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $8 16d
Will HSBC fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 16d
Will Deutsche Bank fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 17d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 19d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 19d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $22 19d
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $21 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $48 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $9 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $29 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $20 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $19 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $29 20d
Will Morgan Stanley fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 20d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 20d
Will Morgan Stanley fail by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,955.44 · official $3,954.96 (match) · 921 history records