Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:59:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1ee8…d0ba other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$46 (+9%) realized +$47 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$46
crypto 9% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +6.2% -3.9% 71% 71% +3.5%
≤30d 14 +6.2% -3.9% 71% 71% +3.5%
≤90d 14 +6.2% -3.9% 71% 71% +3.5%
all 14 +6.2% -3.9% 71% 71% +3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 71% +3.5%
10% -13.1% 57% -6.4%
15% -21.5% 50% -15.5%
20% -29.2% 36% -23.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$21 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized+$47
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $37 +$23 +62%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $35 −$24 -67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $34 +$18 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 +$3 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $23 +$16 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $28 +$17 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$7 +36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 7h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $39 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $12 10h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $37 23h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 32h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 32h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 36h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $34 45h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $22 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $23 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $28 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $28 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $45 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.97 · official $120.97 (match) · 30 history records