Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ee9…8a4d crypto 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$94 (+11%) realized +$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%9W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$311
world 15% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -30.8% -37.4% 38% 38% -32.2%
≤30d 24 -30.8% -37.4% 38% 38% -32.2%
≤90d 24 -30.8% -37.4% 38% 38% -32.2%
all 24 -30.8% -37.4% 38% 38% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.4% 38% -32.2%
10% ← realistic here -43.4% 33% -38.7%
15% -48.9% 29% -44.6%
20% -53.9% 25% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$30 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses9 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $6 +$14 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 29 $127 +$98 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $130 −$130 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $102 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 29 $37 −$32 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $15 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 42m
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $138 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records