Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1E 0x1eef…3986 sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+4%) realized +$42 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$85
14 days+$85
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$46
crypto 24% +$19
world 5% +$94
other 3% −$16
tech 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +846.2% +756.1% 100% 100% +756.1%
≤30d 1 +846.2% +756.1% 100% 100% +756.1%
≤90d 38 +10.7% +0.1% 47% 42% -1.8%
all 39 +7.8% -2.4% 46% 41% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 41% -2.5%
10% -11.8% 38% -11.8%
15% -20.3% 28% -20.3%
20% -28.1% 26% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$12 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$42
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)39 / 43
History coverage144d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2026? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-77%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $10 +$85 +846%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Sharks (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Apr 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $50 +$11 +23%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #4 Playof Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 19 $50 +$16 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $60 −$59 -99%
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Chal Apr 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Challen Apr 16 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 16 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 16 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 16 $11 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Apr 16 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 16 $119 +$34 +29%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $69 +$26 +38%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: ZOTIX vs FC Famalicão Esports (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Eu Apr 13 $30 +$23 +76%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 13 $5 +$12 +249%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha Apr 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports (BO5) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 12 $59 +$40 +68%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $20 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playof Apr 11 $16 +$13 +79%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Apr 10 $10 −$9 -92%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 10 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 23 $1 +$1 +103%
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? Mar 23 $10 +$27 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Mar 23 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 94¢ $95 1h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY No 42¢ $1 52d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Sharks (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs BUY Sharks 18¢ $30 57d
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Sharks (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs BUY Sharks 18¢ $20 57d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 61d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs SELL Vitality 94¢ $61 61d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY Vitality 76¢ $50 62d
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #4 Playof BUY Rooster 97¢ $20 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 62d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $60 63d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY Vitality 75¢ $50 63d
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Chal SELL ALKA 100¢ $15 64d
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Challen SELL Vexa 10¢ $3 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $25 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $10 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $2 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $10 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $55 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $50 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $99 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $69 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 64d
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Challen BUY Vexa 14¢ $5 64d
Counter-Strike: R2 Esports Club vs ALKA (BO3) - CCT South America Chal BUY ALKA 65¢ $10 64d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B SELL Natus Vincere 75¢ $47 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.66 · official $5.66 (match) · 87 history records