Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:52:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ef1…a151 world 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%28W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$4
14 days+$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$6
other 19% +$4
politics 17% $0
sports 12% −$6
economics 4% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.6% -10.0% 50% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 28 +0.0% -9.5% 46% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 74 +0.0% -9.5% 36% 1% -9.7%
all 76 -0.2% -9.7% 37% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -9.8%
10% -18.3% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses28 / 48
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage529d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $47 −$5 -10%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $39 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $36 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $94 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $101 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $87 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $70 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $68 +$2 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $84 +$3 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $62 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $21 +$1 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $67 −$8 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $82 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $74 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $6 $0 -3%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $25 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $158 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $89 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $83 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $3 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $1 $0 -14%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $75 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $4 $0 +2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $82 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $2 $0 +11%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $49 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 26h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $19 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $13 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $18 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $15 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $17 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $11 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $25 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $18 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $17 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 339 history records