Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ef1…2338 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$34 (-23%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$34
crypto 13% +$9
sports 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -16.4% -24.3% 33% 17% -28.1%
≤30d 12 -16.4% -24.3% 33% 17% -28.1%
≤90d 12 -16.4% -24.3% 33% 17% -28.1%
all 12 -16.4% -24.3% 33% 17% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.3% 17% -28.1%
10% -31.6% 17% -35.0%
15% -38.2% 17% -41.3%
20% -44.3% 17% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 +$9 +98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 −$3 -20%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$12 -61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$3 -15%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$2 -29%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $18 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 17h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 18h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 19¢ $5 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 21h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 22h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 46¢ $17 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 25h
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 27h
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 27¢ $10 27h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 42h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $5 43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 37¢ $5 43h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $7 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $7 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records