Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:04:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ef2…3769 other 240 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 231L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$23
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$34
sports 25% −$23
politics 8% −$5
culture 7% −$6
economics 6% −$4
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 240 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)240 / 240
History coverage129d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 240 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $299 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $171 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $315 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $191 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $561 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $676 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $414 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $658 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $377 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $102 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $220 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $446 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $127 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $322 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $130 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $401 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $536 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $354 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $276 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $149 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $191 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $226 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $280 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $139 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $460 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $169 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $113 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $277 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $191 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $323 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $301 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 2h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 4h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 6h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 7h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 9h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 9h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 12h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 17h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 19h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 26h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 28h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 32h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 35h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 41h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 42h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $51 3d
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1299 history records