Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1ef9…fe12 crypto 752 markets active 14h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$108 (-3%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%326W / 426L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$191
14 days−$285
30 days−$279
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$80
sports 13% −$312
other 1% +$55
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 +8.6% -1.7% 47% 41% -16.0%
≤30d 411 -9.5% -18.1% 40% 36% -16.7%
≤90d 752 -5.9% -14.8% 43% 39% -17.0%
all 752 -5.9% -14.8% 43% 39% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 39% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 36% -24.9%
15% -30.4% 33% -32.2%
20% -37.2% 26% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses326 / 426
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)752 / 752
History coverage49d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 752 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$53 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$8 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$21 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$9 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$17 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$13 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$66 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$11 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $72 −$48 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$31 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$15 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$18 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$27 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$19 -90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $204 −$51 -25%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 −$58 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$32 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $84 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $21 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $9 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $31 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1910 history records