Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:26:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1E 0x1efd…c5e8 world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$1
other 23% $0
sports 7% +$3
crypto 2% −$1
weather 2% $0
politics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 14 -0.8% -10.3% 29% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 -0.8% -10.3% 29% 0% -9.4%
all 30 -2.4% -11.7% 43% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 3% -9.2%
10% -20.2% 3% -17.9%
15% -27.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage487d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $11 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $32 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $63 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $95 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $32 +$1 +3%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in June? Jun 25 $7 $0 +5%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jun 22 $7 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Jun 20 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $1 $0 +6%
Mississippi State vs. Alabama Mar 04 $9 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 52-53°F on February 26? Feb 25 $10 $0 -2%
Northern Illinois vs. Miami (OH) Feb 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 25 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $30 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $35 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $26 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $6 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $32 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $24 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $12 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $36 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $36 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $36 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $5 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $28 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $33 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 19d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 21d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $28 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $27 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 88 history records