Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1F 0x1f05…5845 sports 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$146 (+29%) realized +$137 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%24W / 39L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$35
14 days+$178
30 days+$160
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$57
sports 29% +$110
crypto 1% +$3
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +12.3% +1.6% 29% 29% +20.3%
≤30d 63 +49.0% +34.8% 38% 38% +23.9%
≤90d 63 +49.0% +34.8% 38% 38% +23.9%
all 63 +49.0% +34.8% 38% 38% +23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.8% 38% +23.9%
10% +21.9% 35% +12.0%
15% +10.1% 35% +1.2%
20% -0.7% 33% -8.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +96% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$3 · ×3.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$137
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses24 / 39
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)63 / 70
History coverage17d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+78%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $7 +$29 +408%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $2 +$8 +343%
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 29 $3 $0 -4%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $8 −$7 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $31 +$17 +57%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $3 $0 +12%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $3 +$7 +291%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 +$7 +237%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 +$5 +250%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 +$10 +650%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $76 +$38 +51%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 +$20 +476%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 +$6 +86%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$8 +388%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 +$10 +17%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$20 +649%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 −$7 -40%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 $0 -8%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$8 +786%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $56 +$25 +46%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$11 +226%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$19 +307%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $36 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 5h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 9h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 43h
Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 43h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 43h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 43h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 43h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 43h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 43h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 43h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 63¢ $48 44h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 17¢ $3 44h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 44h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 14¢ $3 45h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $31 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 47h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 4d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 4d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 4d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 4d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.83 · official $71.96 (match) · 115 history records